PREVIEW – 91st Academy Awards Predictions

By Joe Hammerschmidt

After five months of festivals, guild celebrations, local critic society voting, and post-screening civilian speculation, the big day is finally here. Oscar Sunday, for all its faults easily one of my favorite days of the year as a serious cinephile. Growing up with the show as far back as 2003, when Chicago left with the top prize, but not being old enough to experience most of the nominees, it was all still enough to spark my enthusiasm for the art form.

Now, in 2019, it still feels like the same show, but given all the needless attempts to make the show more relevant to the average television viewer, they’ve alienated them in the process. This year’s Oscars show will be a legitimately hot mess, and The Academy is truly to blame. Personally speaking, the Best Popular Film wouldn’t have been much of an issue the same way waiting too long to find a capable emcee was. While I still consider the aborted Popular Film award a total insult to cinephilic intelligence, and hopefully it’ll be nothing more than an awkward Jeopardy answer in two years time, the show itself is on the line without any of its perennial skeletal hallmarks that keep the program on its toes. An award show that feels like a classic variety show at times, and that’s pushing a little too hard to be a second Super Bowl for the promising advertisers whose opinions hadn’t been fazed by the shifting backfire, but some viewers may be.

Of course, the back-breaking haystraw was the possible decision on the Academy’s part (owing to incessant network pressure) to relegate four categories to commercial breaks. It would’ve hurt both casual audience member and hardcore film-fan alike, the sting only lessened further when two of the most valuable elements of a filmmaking machine were nearly  cheated out of equal time: editing and cinematography. They are just as necessary a craft as any of the acting categories, or overglossed visual effects; The Academy was right to reverse their decision, perhaps the only good call made on this wayward crash into oblivion. The first time an Oscarcast lacks a host in 30 years, and so far no demeaning musical number involving Rob Lowe, which is a slight plus. But this year’s potential winners, for anyone following recent trends as well as confident victors earlier in the race may be a trifle muted on the level of surprises as compared to the broadcast, which will no doubt pale in comparison to Jimmy Kimmel’s prior pair of host gigs. Both of them needlessly tested my patience, but still kept a fairly trite comedic flavor around them; that whole Wrinkle in Time screening thing failed to make any logical sense, however.

Now to the winners themselves. Trying to peg any of them down is like cutting past our recent snowstorm: You would be a damn fool to pass through it, and it would take forever to do so, and you’re often better off staying home. But still, the pull of resolution is too strong not to try and make sense of them. I’ll speak briefly on each category as we roll along. Please keep in mind that there was one of the 52 nominated films I was unable to experience in a theater ahead of the ceremony; foreign language/cinematography nominee Never Look Away, which Seattle’s Uptown theater had disappointingly delayed two extra weeks. Still, that’s better than being as far behind as I was when the noms were announced five weeks ago, and certainly an improvement from where I stopped the death race last year.

Also, full disclosure, I may not have a trifle of confidence in any of these picks, so please be kind in the days after the ceremony if I manage to get most of them wrong. And lastly, Please thank Amanda Spears on Twitter if you can, she pretty much kept the show from falling apart completely.

BEST PICTURE

There really are no clear front-runners in this wild grabbag. Roma and Green Book have proven the dominant factors in most of the award shows, so to anticipate any of the other six may be just wasted effort. Given the Academy’s penchant for films that can speak to some small form of social equality, Green Book may win out, and if it does, I will immediately pine for the inexcusable absence of Peter Farrelly in the Director category. But for my money, Roma is the overall higher-ranking feat, on both performance and technical level. Still, I must go with my gut and hope that I’m wrong.

Will Win: Green Book
Could Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma

 

BEST DIRECTOR

For all the triumphs and talent in bringing the five represented films to life, I strongly feel the most worthy recipient of the Director award in any year will always be the best of the five who can represent the term “auteur” with real spirit. While Spike’s joint ruffled many feathers and made it fun, McKay captured the pained weaknesses of a political figurehead, and Lanthimos certainly reevaluated the Victorian era period piece into a modern day chick comedy, I feel Cuaron had crafted the most complete film of this quintet. The Academy still loves him, hopefully viewers will feel the same.

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Could Win: Pawel Kawikowski, Cold War

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

 

BEST ACTOR

Rami Malek is likely nominated in one of the weaker overall nominees; its portrayal of Queen’s accomplishments were disastrously scrutinized, but somehow the HFPA found him oozing of charisma as the band’s frontman. I may scream if Malek wins; he doesn’t deserve to. Bale, Cooper, even Mortensen were filling stronger shoes in their respective films. But, I guess Hollywood be crazy in at least one part of their biggest show night.

Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Christian Bale, Vice

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

 

BEST ACTRESS

Miss Close had rightfully earned her nomination, and the hope is overwhelming this may be her year to secure a statue, and I will not be surprised if Academy peer pressure (with Globes, Critics Choice and SAG wins in her court), steers in her direction. Olivia Colman, who holds a rightful BAFTA win along with her own Globe, deserves it so much more, if only to finally give her wide recognition by American audiences. She has been a solid mainstay in the UK for over two decades; I personally still love her most for her collaborations with the comedy duo Mitchell and Webb, and that may never change.

Will Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Could Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

The majority of critics (myself included as one of my top ten favorite single acting performances last year) have truly favored Richard E. Grant, who joins Colman as a deserving BAFTA winner, as well as Spirit Awards victor, for his epic character in CYEFM. However, motivation from mostly every other awards organization will have swayed Mahershela Ali into his second Oscar win in this category. If there were any real surprises to be expected, it’s with Elliot. He was no doubt the best surprise of Bradley Cooper’s talented cast, and much like Close he may be well overdue for his chance.

Will Win: Mahershela Ali, Green Book

Could Win: Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This category was a little tougher to peg down, as I had viewed the film most likely to score big rather late. Regina King had been a critics darling, but not so much for me. Some others may factor her a possibility, but I’m opting to play it a little more safe. It should be more between which of The Favourite’s supporting performances had the better screen presence, Weisz or Stone.

Will Win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Could Win: Amy Adams, Vice

Should Win: Emma Stone, The Favourite

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

While nominees with a more fictional literary influence tend to hold a tighter foothold with voters, BlacKkKlansman’s crusade of hidden truth, led by the no-cares-given Spike Lee may have the edge, even if Can You Ever Forgive Me? did take a WGA win.

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

If some are saying Green Book could win here, once more in the absence of Farrelly in the running for Director, then Picture will follow. I’ll join them, but only if Roma winds up following the same trajectory, given any film that wins Picture must be accompanied by one of the other big eight. If only there were more momentum, however for Paul Schrader’s First Reformed; before Cuaron became a large enough factor, there was a seriously Earth-shattering experience with less frills and more drama.

Will Win: Green Book

Could Win: First Reformed

Should Win: Roma

 

ANIMATED FEATURE

This is easily the category I’m most excited for, but please don’t make me feel bad for personally enjoying Ralph Breaks the Internet somewhat more than I did Into the Spiderverse, which had stayed in the limelight every point in this whirlwind season. Of course, Incredibles 2 is the highest grosser, Isle of Dogs was the most artistically pleasing, and Mirai is just there to fill out the set and may have no momentum whatsoever. As far as applying the term “cinema” goes, Spiderverse will finish out with the gold, on top of its status as a serious genre-definer.

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Could Win: Isle of Dogs

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Easy win for Mexico, and their hero Cuaron. I’ll keep the compelling Cold War in the mix as a wildcard upset.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold Win

Should Win: Roma

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Two of my favorite docs last year had been shafted; there was no reason Won’t You Be My Neighbor shouldn’t be among this group. If the Academy favors real news-makers that could carry their own film, RBG would be a safe lock. But for sentimental reasons, I’m seeing Free Solo pull the upset; Alex Honnold as an underdog hero, and his film may prove there could be more of the same to truly entertain folks beyond mere fiction.

Will Win: Free Solo

Could Win: RBG

Should Win: Free Solo

 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The short film categories are usually the toughest to determine; Doc and Live Action’s films were generally dark, depressing, even disturbing to work through; the animated works full of unexpected delights, particularly Animal Behaviour and Pixar’s Bao, the widest viewed entry and the predestined winner in its category. For Doc, the most positive, Period. End of Sentence will likely win; Live Action will be victorious with the French-Canadian ageless romance tale Marguerite. For these three, I will care the least if I get either of them incorrect.

Will Win: Period. End of Sentence

Could Win: End Game

Should Win: Black Sheep

 

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Please see above.

Will Win: Marguerite

Could Win: Fauve

Should Win: Marguerite

 

ANIMATED SHORT

Please see above.

Will Win: Bao

Could Win: Animal Behaviour

Should Win: Weekends

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Among these five, Blanchard’s score was likely the most diverse, in that it could’ve blended well with any other genre of film on top of his frequent collaborating with Lee. I will not rule out Black Panther, which won at the Grammys two weeks prior, nor Mary Poppins Returns which has its musical roots working well in its favor

Will Win: Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman

Could Win: Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther

Should Win: Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

Of course, I have one or two backup picks, but I will add the wrong song from Poppins is represented. Had it been either “A Cover is Not the Book” or “Can You Imagine That?”, not only would I feel it to be more of a competitive race, but it would make for one more high-quality performance during the telecast. All that said, this is Gaga’s category. She and Mark Ronson will be victorious, and it’s about time.

Will Win: “Shallow”, A Star is Born

Could Win: “All the Stars”, Black Panther

Should Win: “The Place Where Lost Things Go”, Mary Poppins Returns

 

SOUND EDITING

Had First Man not been snubbed for Picture and Director, I’d more confidently opt for it as the lock. As is, it’s down to the dominant musical dramas, but specifically Rhapsody, who managed to make the most of constant crowd noise, ambient noise, and of course, a catalog of memorable music. A Quiet Place may pull an upset, simply for being a tight aural explosion, making pure noise out of silence when we never expected it.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: A Quiet Place

Should Win: First Man

 

SOUND MIXING

If First Man had to nab either of these two, it’s overall soundscape layering would be more attractive than the separate parts. Otherwise, please see above.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: First Man

 

COSTUME DESIGN

Period dramas are instant bait for award voters, there’s always a notable design aesthetic that could draw them in like catnip. While I preferred Ruth Carter’s genre-bending work on Black Panther, and the conservatively broad dressiness of Poppins, Sandy Powell’s fourth Oscar win is assured through The Favourite.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: Mary Poppins Returns

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

About the same as with costumes. I want Poppins to win something more, and even more heartbreaking, Isle of Dogs was more deserving of a nod.

Will Win: The Favourite

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: Mary Poppins Returns

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black and white filmmaking will be celebrated greatly in this category, as it has through the whole season. Cuaron’s already nabbed a few awards elsewhere for his direct relationship with the camera, but Łukasz Żal, who nabbed an ASC win for Cold War, may be a sudden surprise, possibly.

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

 

MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

It was a rather sharp back and forth between Border and Vice; one lends its talents to an accidental Swedish fairy tale, and the country has been lucky as nominees in this category three of the last four years. But Greg Cannom’s highly transformative on a willing Christian Bale could be the sure pick.

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: Vice

Should Win: Border

 

FILM EDITING

Not seeing this category (and cinematography) would’ve been the greatest blow of the night, had intervention not been taken. I don’t necessarily have a clear selection here, but the musical biopic may have the upper hand. May John Ottman’s work finally be praised, even as his shunned directing partner is nowhere to be found.

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Could Win: Vice

Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

While Avengers: Infinity War may have led the way with its respective guild, I may be eyeing the film with the strongest use of world-building in its VFX work. Spielberg’s Ready Player One did just that, creating its virtual dreamscape that lent a full cinematic immersion last spring. Black Panther and First Man may also be opportune if only for its use of effects in a more functional sense.

Will Win: Ready Player One

Could Win: Black Panther

Should Win: First Man